How do rumors become conspiracy theories become ...
"Killing babies, drinking blood, and occasionally eating fetuses is what middle-class English people do, or at least what some of them were described as doing during the 1980's–when not submitting their own children to bizarre forms of sexual abuse in the context of Satanic rituals. What started as a rumor became a public crisis, when more and more cases were reported ... Local authorities were flooded with anonymous accusations. ... After more careful police investigations, it turned out there was no evidence for any of those alleged episodes of abuse, Satanic or otherwise."
Sound familiar? This quote was taken from Pascal Boyer's 2018 book, Minds Make Societies: How Cognition Explains the World Humans Create
Like many others, I watched in dismay as a violent mob rushed the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. I value living in a land where no single individual is above the rule of law because I've seen the consequences of a failed state, and it's not pretty.
As a student of human behavior, however, I wondered, "How did we get here?" What is the appeal of rumors that become conspiracy theories (or stories rather than theories as we shall discover) that become communities that give people a deep sense of purpose and activate such an intense loyalty, even to the detriment of the adherent? Something that provides such powerful meaning to so many people deserves our respect and a non-judgmental inquiry.
Maybe I was born a skeptic (for which I am grateful) or maybe I am missing the "follower" gene. I am, however, so fascinated by how human beings create the social worlds we do that I wanted to understand why these "theories" are so popular, and so powerful, right now. Here's what I gleaned from my informal study of this topic. (And, by the way, no offense to the English!)
To quote Pascal Boyer, “Rumors are mostly about negative events and their sinister explanation.” They often arise in periods of economic or social uncertainty and focus our fears on a specific and tangible threat or danger. Many facets of human thought and perception have a negative bias. Avoiding being eaten by the tiger is more important than knowing that your neighbor had a good day. We sort and remember potentially dangerous information much better than positive news. Danger cues tend to be very specific. The tiger in the bushes that your neighbor glimpsed yesterday is more salient for your survival that the berries he thought saw on the path (unless you’re starving, that is!) Safety cues are part of our normal daily experience, so they don't stand out like threats do.
Rumor and useful information also reach us through the same channels. We get a lot of useful information from other people. One of the most common statements on conspiracy chat groups is “I heard from [someone] that…” If your ancestors discovered a plant was toxic until you cooked it, you don’t have to repeat that test yourself. If the cost of taking precautions is not arduous, and the risk of not following those precautions could be serious, you have little to lose by following their advice. A good rumor, then, describes specific threatening hazards and activates fear and precautionary reactions in the listener. This is useful when it comes to avoiding poisonous foods or potential tigers. The twist is when a rumor, a scary story of something that might affect you, is converted into a moral imperative.
We evolved in small bands of people that had to stick together to survive, and who also faced other groups who might compete with us for resources. In order to have a place in your group, it’s useful to be seen as a trust-worthy source of information. The more people who stand with us, the bigger our group, and the safer we are. Thus, each of us has a big motivation to convince others to our point of view. As Boyer puts it, “People who agree with information you provide, precisely because you provided it, signal that they are ready to follow your cause, to join some collective action that you may instigate.” Doubters are dangerous to our belonging because they undermine your standing in the group if your story is shown to be false. If you can position yourself as opposed to a vile threat to group welfare, you can increase your standing in your group. If you're going to put yourself out there, however, you need believers.
How can you demonstrate your commitment to the rumor, to convince others of your value? Boyer puts it this way, “Moralized recruitment of this kind can lead to competitive outrage. If your reaction to threat information is an index of your moral value, and of your commitment to potential collective action, then you are motivated to make that reaction clearly visible to all. … a clear signal of commitment is to be more outraged than most.” Thus the potential path to violent outrage as an expression of belonging. Worldwide connectivity gives the appearance of consensus, that others stand with you, which can give you the incentive to escalate the outrage and polarize you against anyone who counters your story.
Add to this the way in which information is presented as these conspiracy stories gain traction. For example, a recently popular conspiracy theory is presented by a mysterious “insider” through ambiguous cues in obscure internet groups. As you discover cues and solve the riddle, your brain helpfully gives you a shot of dopamine which produces that pleasurable “aha!” moment that comes from finding the answer. In other words, the presentation is like a game. That dopamine high is also one of the mechanisms driving addiction. It becomes a game of confirming your existing beliefs by selecting from random bits of news that align with your story, then piecing those together with the vague clues anonymously left for you, punctuated by rewarding bursts of dopamine when you "score".
That this is done in community provides an even stronger motivation to participate in the game in order to belong. Your discoveries, if they align with the group story, are ratified and discussed by fellow group members. This can give you a shot of serotonin from your brain that then makes you feel calm and happy and reinforces your belonging.
Let’s step back a moment and look at whether these rumors and conspiracy theories are actually theories. A theory is a statement that can be tested and proven false, that is, it is falsifiable. For instance if my theory was that all ravens are black, the discovery of albino white ravens in British Columbia would disprove my theory. My theory would be false. It may never be possible to prove a theory true. For instance, are there quantum qubits? Who knows? It’s the best description we’ve got of the data we can measure for now, but if later experiments demonstrate that qubits don’t exist, the theory is moot. Theories are designed to be tested and hold up only as long as they can describe actual physical observable data in the world. Without that ability to be tested and proven false, it’s not a theory, it’s a story. A story on the other hand, is just that. It is an explanation of how things are that is satisfying by itself. We don’t ask stories to be useful or to accurately describe reality. We ask them to be satisfying.
Because of the terrible negative threat implied in these conspiracy stories, adherents can believe themselves to be on the side of Good in a battle with an obvious, specific Evil. This becomes a cause, a calling, a purpose. In our modern world, full of ambiguity, sensory overload, fatiguing meaningless jobs, a disenfranchised often rural population, lack of education, with the corporate game stacked against so many, to be among an elite who will vanquish a giant Evil is compelling. This gives a mundane life meaning and purpose, and is downright addictive. You feel like somebody important because you belong to this elite group on the side of Good. Especially if you don’t have to leave your computer to do it! There is little actual cost to belonging (other than your friends’ and family members’ guffaws), unless you take your story to extremes. Then you encounter real world consequences ... or should encounter them.
In science, reality has a way of eventually busting theories that aren’t the best available explanation for real physical phenomena. In the social realm, this is more difficult, until actions take place in the physical realm. And even then, how we explain observable phenomena to ourselves is highly subjective.
The urge not to be alone, to belong and have the safety of a group is vital to us as social animals. We will go to great lengths and make perilous sacrifices to maintain our belonging. What is so sad to me is that so many people feel they cannot find a place in our current modern world. Rather than ridicule, we need to understand their situation and create meaningful ways for them to belong. Deep listening is a good start. If meaningful, connected places in a society cannot be found for all its members, then insurrections remain a threat to the society as a whole.
